La invasión rusa de Ucrania de 2022. Vol. 9

Dani escribió:Los rusos disminuirán la presión sobre Kiev en un gesto de buena voluntad... Te tienes que reír.

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

Pendejo escribió:

Godofredo escribió:

Koikila escribió:

Ashra escribió:

Enric67 escribió:Coño, han envenenado al Abramovich y dos negociadores ucranianos.

Será propaganda de los Zelenski fans.
Esas cosas eran más propias de España según leí aquí

Qué manía con envenenar a la gente

La verdad es que ya es fijación.

Lo hacen para joder

alflames escribió:

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

pues sin, bueno, no con, coñas, pero en serio, el uso mas importante de los chicles y demás suplementos de nicotina es ese, yo me quede flipado (y eso que voy a 15- 20g diarios) cuando me dijeron que  hay un gran % de peña que ni con efisemas lo dejan por si mismos

pero si, hace una semana mas o menos que se habla de que si intentan sitiar/rodear kiev puede que les den una buena tunda en el intento

Dani escribió:

alflames escribió:

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

pues sin, bueno, no con, coñas, pero en serio, el uso mas importante de los chicles y demás suplementos de nicotina es ese, yo me quede flipado (y eso que voy a 15- 20g diarios) cuando me dijeron que  hay un gran % de peña que ni con efisemas lo dejan por si mismos

pero si, hace una semana mas o menos que se habla de que si intentan sitiar/rodear kiev puede que les den una buena tunda en el intento

Intentando sitiar Kiev llevan desde el minuto uno.

Dani escribió:Los rusos disminuirán la presión sobre Kiev en un gesto de buena voluntad... Te tienes que reír.

alflames escribió:
lo mas que han llegado es a rodear un cuarto de kiev y a distancia, 

Eloy escribió:

alflames escribió:
lo mas que han llegado es a rodear un cuarto de kiev y a distancia, 

Ni tan mal yendo con una mano atada a la espalda

alflames escribió:

Dani escribió:

alflames escribió:

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

pues sin, bueno, no con, coñas, pero en serio, el uso mas importante de los chicles y demás suplementos de nicotina es ese, yo me quede flipado (y eso que voy a 15- 20g diarios) cuando me dijeron que  hay un gran % de peña que ni con efisemas lo dejan por si mismos

pero si, hace una semana mas o menos que se habla de que si intentan sitiar/rodear kiev puede que les den una buena tunda en el intento

Intentando sitiar Kiev llevan desde el minuto uno.

depende de a que llames intento, desde luego que esa era uno de los objetivos cuando empezó esto, hombre si meter un tanque en ucrania es intentarlo si, pero yo considero que algo es un intento si la probabilidad de conseguir lo que intentas no es despreciable en una gran parte de los escenarios, si yo voy a una pista de atletismo y me pongo en la linea de salida no existe ningun universo en el que esté intentando batir el record de los 100

lo mas que han llegado es a rodear un cuarto de kiev y a distancia, eso para mi no es un intento de sitio, 

lo que queria decir es que desde hace una semana o asi la gente ya ha empezado a ver que es muy muy muy muy dificil que consiguiesen rodearla y que si siguen ahi puede que antes de "intentarlo" los echen para atras irremediablemente

alflames escribió:

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

pues sin, bueno, no con, coñas, pero en serio, el uso mas importante de los chicles y demás suplementos de nicotina es ese, yo me quede flipado (y eso que voy a 15- 20g diarios) cuando me dijeron que  hay un gran % de peña que ni con efisemas lo dejan por si mismos

pero si, hace una semana mas o menos que se habla de que si intentan sitiar/rodear kiev puede que les den una buena tunda en el intento

Eloy escribió:
https://www.publico.es/internacional/cierra-periodico-ruso-novaya-gazeta-diario-independiente-pais.html

Cierra 'Nóvaya Gazeta', dirigido por el Nobel Dmitri Murátov y último periódico independiente en Rusia



Supongo que ya se habrá comentado, habida cuenta de lo mal que sienta por aquí que cierren periódicos.

David Z. escribió:

alflames escribió:

David Z. escribió:

Como si te da un ataque al corazón y tras pasar un mes en la UCI anuncias que dejarás de fumar como gesto de buena voluntad.

pues sin, bueno, no con, coñas, pero en serio, el uso mas importante de los chicles y demás suplementos de nicotina es ese, yo me quede flipado (y eso que voy a 15- 20g diarios) cuando me dijeron que  hay un gran % de peña que ni con efisemas lo dejan por si mismos

pero si, hace una semana mas o menos que se habla de que si intentan sitiar/rodear kiev puede que les den una buena tunda en el intento

Eres lo más grande


Salud,
z

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

georgino escribió:A ver que dice IKER el jueves...

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

lacan escribió:

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

Ciertamente a los rusos no parece que les vaya bien pero Zelensky lleva días gritando a los 4 vientos que acepta no entrar en la OTAN y abraza la neutralidad, básicamente lo que pedían los rusos desde el principio y no soy pro ruso soy pro hechos

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

Ciertamente a los rusos no parece que les vaya bien pero Zelensky lleva días gritando a los 4 vientos que acepta no entrar en la OTAN y abraza la neutralidad, básicamente lo que pedían los rusos desde el principio y no soy pro ruso soy pro hechos

Ucrania no había anunciado que iría a entrar en la OTAN, parece que andaba buscando opciones para protegerse de su vecino matón. El vecino matón ha cumplido su amenaza. Imagino que a la solución se le llamará neutralidad, para que se quede contenta Rusia, pero en la práctica será protección para Ucrania frente a Rusia al margen de la OTAN, o con la OTAN bajo la mesa. Si algo ha quedado claro es que nadie puede estar tranquilo con Rusia y mejor garantizarse alguna protección ante sus devaneos.

lacan escribió:

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

Ciertamente a los rusos no parece que les vaya bien pero Zelensky lleva días gritando a los 4 vientos que acepta no entrar en la OTAN y abraza la neutralidad, básicamente lo que pedían los rusos desde el principio y no soy pro ruso soy pro hechos

Ucrania no había anunciado que iría a entrar en la OTAN, parece que andaba buscando opciones para protegerse de su vecino matón. El vecino matón ha cumplido su amenaza. Imagino que a la solución se le llamará neutralidad, para que se quede contenta Rusia, pero en la práctica será protección para Ucrania frente a Rusia al margen de la OTAN, o con la OTAN bajo la mesa. Si algo ha quedado claro es que nadie puede estar tranquilo con Rusia y mejor garantizarse alguna protección ante sus devaneos.

Ucranía quería entrar en la OTAN. ¿dónde llevas metido los 3 últimos meses? si en algo tan básico ya vas perdido mejor no hablamos.

https://theconversation.com/whats-nato-and-why-does-ukraine-want-to-join-175821

Godofredo escribió:Militarmente la operación rusa es difícil de vender.  El bochorno es importante.

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

Ciertamente a los rusos no parece que les vaya bien pero Zelensky lleva días gritando a los 4 vientos que acepta no entrar en la OTAN y abraza la neutralidad, básicamente lo que pedían los rusos desde el principio y no soy pro ruso soy pro hechos

Ucrania no había anunciado que iría a entrar en la OTAN, parece que andaba buscando opciones para protegerse de su vecino matón. El vecino matón ha cumplido su amenaza. Imagino que a la solución se le llamará neutralidad, para que se quede contenta Rusia, pero en la práctica será protección para Ucrania frente a Rusia al margen de la OTAN, o con la OTAN bajo la mesa. Si algo ha quedado claro es que nadie puede estar tranquilo con Rusia y mejor garantizarse alguna protección ante sus devaneos.

Ucranía quería entrar en la OTAN. ¿dónde llevas metido los 3 últimos meses? si en algo tan básico ya vas perdido mejor no hablamos.

https://theconversation.com/whats-nato-and-why-does-ukraine-want-to-join-175821

Turquia también quería entrar en la UE.
Hay un salto entre declarar intenciones, sondear posibilidades, y que eso sea, no ya una realidad, sino una posibilidad viable.

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

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Share this article.
Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

Intruder escribió:

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Zoetrope escribió:

lacan escribió:

Langarica escribió:1- Se va a entrar en Kiev en 48 horas.

2- Se va a rodear Kiev

3 - Nos vamos que ya hemos cumplido el objetivo.


El ridículo ruso es acojonante.

Ciertamente a los rusos no parece que les vaya bien pero Zelensky lleva días gritando a los 4 vientos que acepta no entrar en la OTAN y abraza la neutralidad, básicamente lo que pedían los rusos desde el principio y no soy pro ruso soy pro hechos

Ucrania no había anunciado que iría a entrar en la OTAN, parece que andaba buscando opciones para protegerse de su vecino matón. El vecino matón ha cumplido su amenaza. Imagino que a la solución se le llamará neutralidad, para que se quede contenta Rusia, pero en la práctica será protección para Ucrania frente a Rusia al margen de la OTAN, o con la OTAN bajo la mesa. Si algo ha quedado claro es que nadie puede estar tranquilo con Rusia y mejor garantizarse alguna protección ante sus devaneos.

Ucranía quería entrar en la OTAN. ¿dónde llevas metido los 3 últimos meses? si en algo tan básico ya vas perdido mejor no hablamos.

https://theconversation.com/whats-nato-and-why-does-ukraine-want-to-join-175821

Turquia también quería entrar en la UE.
Hay un salto entre declarar intenciones, sondear posibilidades, y que eso sea, no ya una realidad, sino una posibilidad viable.

Patinazoe...........algo poco habitual.....

loaded escribió:Interesante e inquietante reflexión (en inglés) acerca de que quizá a Putin no le hayan salido tan mal los cálculos.

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

Did you know you can share 10 gift articles a month, even with nonsubscribers?
Share this article.
Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

Oker escribió:

loaded escribió:Interesante e inquietante reflexión (en inglés) acerca de que quizá a Putin no le hayan salido tan mal los cálculos.

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

Did you know you can share 10 gift articles a month, even with nonsubscribers?
Share this article.
Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

Vamos, que todo lo mal que supuestamente le iba a Vladimiro es más un deseo que una realidad. Estos hijos de puta no dan puntada sin hilo.

loaded escribió:Interesante e inquietante reflexión (en inglés) acerca de que quizá a Putin no le hayan salido tan mal los cálculos.

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

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Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

efecto diablo escribió:

loaded escribió:Interesante e inquietante reflexión (en inglés) acerca de que quizá a Putin no le hayan salido tan mal los cálculos.

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mental state. Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: “He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.” Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

Did you know you can share 10 gift articles a month, even with nonsubscribers?
Share this article.
Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

A mi este artículo,dentro de mi conocimiento limitado del inglés ,me parece un "no se ha podido equivocar tanto así que tiene que ser una genialidad".
Es como ese artista conceptual que pinta un cuadro con heces .Todos vemos que es un cuadro de mierda pero hay quien quiere ver una genialidad incomprendida .

15000 soldados muertos no es un golpe maestro .

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

David Z. escribió:Igual eso es lo que está pasando. Igual Putin se dijo:

- Primero, dejo que me eliminen a varios generales y comandantes para ir renovando el alto mando y hacer que los chavales tengan ilusión por ascender en el escalafón, al ver que hay hueco.
- Segundo, dejo los camiones tirados en el barro y me ahorro un pastizal en gasolina.
- Tercero, dejo que el rublo caiga a niveles subterráneos para poder salirme por fin del patrón oro y el patrón dólar y adoptar el patrón phoskito, que me pirran.
- Cuarto, dejo que la comunidad internacional me tome por un nuevo Hitler porque eso da prestigio y admiración de las damas en las reuniones del club de campo y petanca.
- Quinto, dejo que me hundan los barcos y me ahorro un pastizal en uniformes de la marina.
- Sexto, expongo ante el mundo la hipocresía occidental que cancela a JK Rowling y Will Smith mientras al Oeste en Moscú yo crecía y vivía sin hacer mucho caso a la guerra fría.
- Séptimo, declaro que Ucrania es Rusia, por lo que no puedo perder la guerra: si gana Ucrania, en realidad ha ganado Rusia.
- Octavo, subo la moral del pueblo haciéndolo sentir nostalgia de los 80, que se lleva ahora: colas para comprar el pan, desabastecimiento, nuevo disco de los Scorpions...
- Noveno, me matan a decenas de miles de soldados e imagina lo que nos ahorramos en pensiones.



Ajedrez de cuatro dimensiones, todo una partida maestra.

Salud,
z

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

Spoiler:

Zoetrope escribió:

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

Si damos por bueno lo del artículo que ha escrito Loaded, su estrategia pasaría por demoler otras ciudades como está haciendo con Mariupol hasta doblegar la voluntad de los ucranianos. 

Putin no parece que tenga que dar grandes cuentas en su país por los soldados muertos ni por las dificultades económicas que pasen sus ciudadanos. Mucho menos cabe esperar que le inquieten las vidas, o las condiciones de vida, de aquellos lugares a los que quiere someter. Por tanto, si nos ponemos en su lugar, es verdad que tampoco es para tanto si a cambio puede lograr el control de los recursos de esos territorios de Ucrania.
Para nosotros, si Putin sacia sus apetencias y así la guerra termina, es probable que nuestros bolsillos vayan más holgados, y tampoco habrá sido para tanto. Siempre encontraremos resortes ideológicos o pragmáticos que nos convenzan que lo que ha ocurrido ha sido lo mejor.

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

David Z. escribió:Igual eso es lo que está pasando. Igual Putin se dijo:

- Primero, dejo que me eliminen a varios generales y comandantes para ir renovando el alto mando y hacer que los chavales tengan ilusión por ascender en el escalafón, al ver que hay hueco.
- Segundo, dejo los camiones tirados en el barro y me ahorro un pastizal en gasolina.
- Tercero, dejo que el rublo caiga a niveles subterráneos para poder salirme por fin del patrón oro y el patrón dólar y adoptar el patrón phoskito, que me pirran.
- Cuarto, dejo que la comunidad internacional me tome por un nuevo Hitler porque eso da prestigio y admiración de las damas en las reuniones del club de campo y petanca.
- Quinto, dejo que me hundan los barcos y me ahorro un pastizal en uniformes de la marina.
- Sexto, expongo ante el mundo la hipocresía occidental que cancela a JK Rowling y Will Smith mientras al Oeste en Moscú yo crecía y vivía sin hacer mucho caso a la guerra fría.
- Séptimo, declaro que Ucrania es Rusia, por lo que no puedo perder la guerra: si gana Ucrania, en realidad ha ganado Rusia.
- Octavo, subo la moral del pueblo haciéndolo sentir nostalgia de los 80, que se lleva ahora: colas para comprar el pan, desabastecimiento, nuevo disco de los Scorpions...
- Noveno, me matan a decenas de miles de soldados e imagina lo que nos ahorramos en pensiones.



Ajedrez de cuatro dimensiones, todo una partida maestra.

Salud,
z

terremoto73 escribió:

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

si,desde hace 8 años,es lo que tienen las putas guerras

en cuanto a tratamiento de prisioneros da la impresión que hay diferencias entre una parte y otra

lo de los medios,pues segun vaya la feria,al Zelensky fan club no le he leido practicamente nada sobre el caso de Pablo Gonzalez,y lo de cerrar canales contrarios en Ucrania se acepta perfectamente,,un poco de autocritica no viene mal

Zoetrope escribió:

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

Si damos por bueno lo del artículo que ha escrito Loaded, su estrategia pasaría por demoler otras ciudades como está haciendo con Mariupol hasta doblegar la voluntad de los ucranianos. 

Putin no parece que tenga que dar grandes cuentas en su país por los soldados muertos ni por las dificultades económicas que pasen sus ciudadanos. Mucho menos cabe esperar que le inquieten las vidas, o las condiciones de vida, de aquellos lugares a los que quiere someter. Por tanto, si nos ponemos en su lugar, es verdad que tampoco es para tanto si a cambio puede lograr el control de los recursos de esos territorios de Ucrania.
Para nosotros, si Putin sacia sus apetencias y así la guerra termina, es probable que nuestros bolsillos vayan más holgados, y tampoco habrá sido para tanto. Siempre encontraremos resortes ideológicos o pragmáticos que nos convenzan que lo que ha ocurrido ha sido lo mejor.

caniplaywithrainbows escribió:

Zoetrope escribió:

Fridge escribió:

terremoto73 escribió:igual pasa como con el Brexit,qie iba a ser el apocalipsis y no parece que esté siendo

Tu wishful thinking contiene el pequeño matiz diferencial de que en Ucrania se viene perpetrando una carnicería.

Lo mismo es una carnicería light, como la mordaza a los medios de comunicación que no nos gustan

Si damos por bueno lo del artículo que ha escrito Loaded, su estrategia pasaría por demoler otras ciudades como está haciendo con Mariupol hasta doblegar la voluntad de los ucranianos. 

Putin no parece que tenga que dar grandes cuentas en su país por los soldados muertos ni por las dificultades económicas que pasen sus ciudadanos. Mucho menos cabe esperar que le inquieten las vidas, o las condiciones de vida, de aquellos lugares a los que quiere someter. Por tanto, si nos ponemos en su lugar, es verdad que tampoco es para tanto si a cambio puede lograr el control de los recursos de esos territorios de Ucrania.
Para nosotros, si Putin sacia sus apetencias y así la guerra termina, es probable que nuestros bolsillos vayan más holgados, y tampoco habrá sido para tanto. Siempre encontraremos resortes ideológicos o pragmáticos que nos convenzan que lo que ha ocurrido ha sido lo mejor.

Vaya, loaded, no sabía que escribías para el New York Times